If you’re following the various short domain-related discussions out there, you’ll notice most domainers think they have it all figured out.
Some say Chinese Premium LLLL.coms will hit $10k next year. Or $25k. Or more.
Others say they’ll go back down to $1,000. Or $100. Or regfee.
The human brain is nothing short of fascinating.
Take a few steps back and you’ll realize we’ve come a long way, in no small part due to our problem solving abilities. But sometimes, it’s precisely the problem solving dimension of our existence that gets us in trouble by making us think we can solve *all* problems.
We can’t.
You can’t.
I can’t.
Deal with it.
Human beings have limitations, even domainers 🙂
One of the most annoying but persistent ones is our inability to predict the future. I’ve yet to come across someone with a 100% accurate crystal ball. Before flipping a coin, ask John and Mark to “predict” what will happen. John will say “heads”, Mark will say “tails” and one of them will be right. But was he right because he’s a brilliant forecaster? No, it was just pure luck.
Now get ready to flip a coin 4 times but before doing it, ask 4 people for predictions.
Person 1 will say Heads + Heads.
Person 2 will say Heads + Tails.
Person 3 will say Tails + Heads.
Person 4 will say Tails + Tails.
One of them will, once again, eventually be right.
But, you’ve guessed it, not because he’s a brilliant forecaster.
… and so on and so forth.
Repeat after me: nobody can predict the future.
Say it out loud a handful of times to let it really sink in. This “epiphany” will make you a better investor, a better entrepreneur and do wonders when it comes to sanity preservation. You’re welcome 🙂
December 2nd, 2015 at 5:53 pm
…flip a coin 2 times, not 4
December 2nd, 2015 at 8:14 pm
Its not all luck though. Extrapolating and synthesizing information to reach conclusions to increase your odds is a skill.
December 2nd, 2015 at 10:11 pm
Those who don’t own any 4L domains, will naturally say it will go down in value and those who own them, are always optimistic.
It is human nature!. It is called the sour grape syndrome.
Anyway, it is better to have than not to have.
December 3rd, 2015 at 3:58 am
I completely agree with this article. Nobody knows what will bring next year regarding chips. I think they will go up, but of course, I cant be 100% sure, just like anybody else, no matter what they are claiming.
December 3rd, 2015 at 6:25 am
“The best way to predict the future is to create it”
December 3rd, 2015 at 10:33 am
No one knows. At least you know this. Some others don’t.
No one knows that a thousand years back there’ll be horseless carriage. Now all of us are either during one or riding in one.
Do you think one day the “internet” will go out extinction? Like horses almost did?
December 3rd, 2015 at 10:35 am
during = using (mistype)