Let’s not discuss politics anymore, the US has chosen Trump as its president and it’s their right to do that at the end of the day.

Instead, let’s focus on what interests us more (domaining) and try to figure out what effect Trump’s win will have on the value of our assets.

In my opinion, Trump’s win is bad news for *most* domain categories.

Why? Because it generates uncertainty and most markets hate uncertainty.

I’ve said “most” because bitcoin for example has gone up in value, since it has always been an asset that actually thrives under a climate of uncertainty.

Domains, unfortunately for us, are traditional “risk on” assets for the most part. In other words, most domain categories tend to go up in value when the market feels confident and down in value when it doesn’t. The Great Recession is a good example. A lot of people thought domains were an oasis, that our industry wouldn’t be affected. They were wrong, domain values (especially reseller market values) have been affected, even more so than “safer” risk-on assets such as stocks.

Now you might have noticed I’ve used the term “most” because there’s one domain category I’m having a hard time forming an opinion about: short domains. On the one hand, after the Great Recession, short domain values have taken a hit, just like other domains. Before the crisis, there had been a short domain surge but it was peanuts compared to what happened in 2015.

Prior to the crisis sure, LLL.coms for example went up in value and we had the first LLLL.com buyout.

But that’s peanuts compared to what happened post-2015, with some of the LLLLs which were available as hand regs in let’s say 2009 fetching 4 figures. I am of course referring to CHIPs or Chinese Premium domains (domains without aeiouv). And of course with 4N.com going up, then 5N.coms shooting up in value, even some 6N.coms at the height of it all.

So, am I saying short domains will go up in value? No.

Am I saying they’ll go down? No.

I’m simply saying that due to the way things have evolved with this specific domain category, it might not move in tandem with the rest of the market. In other words, it could go up while other domains go down or down while other domains go up.

Alright, so let’s take it one domain category at a time, here’s my opinion about each:

1) One word dot coms – end user sales: in my opinion, while high end user sales will undoubtedly continue to take place, the DNJournal list might become less and less impressive

2) One word dot coms – reseller market (domainer to domainer sales): uncertainty is bad for this domain category but if you own really good one worders, then even if they go down in value, I do expect the value drop to be considerably less problematic than with less valuable domains

3) Longer dot coms – end user sales: I’d expect “spectacular” sales to occur less often

4) Longer dot coms – reseller market: I expect reseller market values to drop significantly under periods of uncertainty, I for one would definitely NOT be a buyer of “bread and butter” (as in lower quality but still good) at this point if I were interested in making money on the reseller market

5) Short domains – end user sales: I have no idea, as explained earlier in this article; also, do keep in mind that for ultra-speculative short domain categories, there aren’t many (if any?!?) end users; so if you’re investing in 6N.coms and hoping for end user sales… good luck with that, regardless of what the climate looks like in the financial world

6) Short domains – reseller market: I have no idea, as explained earlier in the article

7) ccTLDs (end user sales and reseller market): this is very market-specific, in that there are no one-size-fits-all answers

8 ) new gTLDs – end user sales: no need to worry, most end users buy new g’s directly from registries anyway 🙂

9) new gTLDs – reseller market: since reseller market activity is ridiculously low as it is, there isn’t much room for reseller market values to drop, so… yeah

Alright then, the opinions above are just that, opinions.

This is how I think domain categories would react if we were to enter a period of uncertainty.

IF.

Who knows, that might not happen. Maybe Trump’s presidency will be smooth, nothing’s impossible. But I for one think it would be wise to prepare yourself because it seems a “perfect storm” situation is close. I’m not a psychic, I can’t put an exact date on the table. All I can say is that many problematic socio-politico-economic factors seem to be lining up. I for one am worried.