I dislike making predictions and want to make it clear this post isn’t one. Instead, think of it as the scenario I attribute the highest probability to. I may very well be wrong and in fact, actually hope I’ll be wrong.
Alright, so what do I think will happen to domaining and business in general during the Trump administration?
Well, I for one expect there to be some short to mid-term momentum but in the mid to long run, I see a calamity as pretty much inevitable.
I come from Eastern Europe and tend to think I have more experience with populism than most of those from the US or more developed countries. In the United States as well as across Western Europe, populism has only relatively recently started representing a successful political model.
The thing with populism is that it sounds great.
We’ll reduce taxes, increase spending and everything’s going to work itself out.
Populist leaders “bribe” pretty much everyone. Business owners are looking forward to reduced taxation. Low income individuals are looking forward to someone giving them the promised way out and so on.
As such, euphoria tends to initially take over.
After the US election for example, confidence indices have been very strong. This is to be expected in my opinion. The stock market is at all-time highs, so the “mood” in the financial world is also upbeat.
The main problem, at least based on my experience, is that in the mid to long run, reality starts to rear its ugly head.
Promises which look great on paper end up not working in the real world. Like for example with the repeal of Obamacare. It would be great if the Trump administration would manage to find a way to replace it with a system where the costs are lower and more people are covered but in the real world, that might just not work. Instead, a decision such as “More coverage or lower prices? Pick one.” will probably have to be made. If the administration chooses the latter (lower prices, even if it means less people will receive coverage), then a lot of Trump’s blue collar working class voters will realize that they just voted themselves out of healthcare coverage.
That is just one example.
Again, this is just my experience with populism but I like to think of it as a bubble. A candidate comes to the scene with an “everyone will be better off” message, the bubble is gradually filled with hot air/enthusiasm but eventually, it will pop once people realize that the things which sounded great on paper didn’t materialize.
So that’s the scenario I’m personally preparing for more: a short to mid-term boost and a mid to long-term crisis.
What does this mean?
Well, it means make hay while the sun’s shining 🙂
In other words, take advantage of this euphoric period. Seal deals. Sell domains. Work your you know what off and make as much money as possible while the general mood is upbeat. Work hard as if you’re an athlete who only has x minutes to get to the finish line. Do it like it’s your last chance to create a nest egg… because it might be, at least for a good while.
