Categorized | Random Rants

Anomaly Is the New Status Quo

Posted on 13 March 2016 by Andrei

At first, I have to admit I didn’t “get” short domains. Quite frankly, I still don’t get numerics for example from an end user perspective.

But as time passed, I realized it doesn’t matter what I “get” or what I “want”, it all boils down to what the market wants.

And the market wants short domains.

Therefore, as a domainer who mostly focuses on the reseller market, I shifted my focus to short domains because that’s where the money is. Where the liquidity/volume is and so on.

Aside from being a domainer, I’m also an economist.

As an economist, I diligently follow developments in the financial world: central banking policies, the performance of various asset classes, the state of the “real” (Main Street and international equivalents) economy, the state of the “paper” economy (Wall Street and international equivalents), you name it.

And I’ve noticed something interesting: yes, the unbelievable appreciation of short domains can be considered an anomaly but if you look at other asset classes and the economy in general, you’ll realize the situation of our little corner of the Internet (domaining) is nothing but a small drop of water in an ocean of anomalies.

At this point, anomalies and situations without precedent are literally everywhere around us.

Let me give you just a few examples:

1) In the European Union as well as in Japan, interest rates have turned NEGATIVE. In other words, some investors are willing to lend money to let’s say Germany at interest rates that are below zero; they pay Germany and other countries to take their money, mainly out of fear (they don’t want returns, they just want to secure their capital as much as they can)

2) In the rest of the world, interest rates (even if not negative) are at historic lows and therefore, the other spectrum of investors (those who are willing to risk more in order to generate higher returns, so the opposite of those who are lending to countries such as Germany at negative interest rates) have to take huge risks in a desperate attempt to somehow generate decent yields: they lend to countries in awful economic shape (junk bonds) at interest rates they used to get from solid countries in the past, they invest in stocks of tech companies (unicorns) which may never generate any money but still have huge valuations, the list could go on and on

3) Oil and commodities have performed awfully, indicating that the real economy is in terrible shape, yet the US stock market for example (even after the bad performance of the past few months) is hovering near all-time highs

4) Economies many considered invincible such as China are slowing down dramatically, which explains why so many Chinese are desperate to get money out of the country; domains are just one such vehicle which enable them to do that, Chinese investors are bidding up various other asset classes as well, from altcoins to art

5) The Baltic Dry index is at record lows, yet the Chinese are adding more and more ships; this leads to anomalies such as the fact as I for example who live in Europe can buy ONE $0.99 item from China via EBay and receive it at no additional shipping cost; it’s downright ridiculous, the $0.99 I send to that seller are enough and don’t even have to pay one additional cent for shipping; these ridiculously low shipping costs are without a doubt something we can consider an anomaly; an anomaly we all enjoy (who doesn’t like receiving cheap products at zero shipping costs?) but an anomaly nonetheless

… the list could go on and on.

As you can see, anomaly is currently the status quo.

These anomalies have been shaping up across pretty much all sectors of the economy and the more time passes, the more we start considering them a normal part of our lives.

In this world dominated by anomalies, the fact that short domains surged in value should no longer shock any of us.

What will happen next?

Your guess is as good as mine.

Maybe values will increase 10x or 100x, maybe they’ll drop all the way to zero.

None of these outcomes would surprise me, for the simple reason that for the reasons outlined today, nothing surprises me anymore.

I ended up adapting and accepting anomaly as the new status quo because quite frankly, I see no other choice for the time being.

So yeah, that pretty much sums up my attitude towards short domains.

Do I consider the short domain value surge an anomaly?

Yes but it’s only one anomaly out of many that we come across these days, so nothing surprises/shocks me anymore.

I’ll continue focusing on them and what happens… well, happens.

I have no idea, I’m just adapting and going with the flow.

Good luck!

3 Comments For This Post

  1. Vinod.R Says:

    We flow with the flow, Try to sell what the market wants and not what we want the market to have. Adaptability is an hard word for many people. we are here for money and we do the same thing always buy and sell, so what brings in money should be bought and sold.

  2. Mike Says:

    Great article, I enjoyed reading that.
    I have the same sort of perspective about everything now.
    Anything that may happen in the next second is pure guesswork and everything that took place before the ‘now’ is just history.

    It’s funny you didn’t mention Trump in reference to anomalies.

    Good piece!
    cheers
    M

  3. Joseph Peterson Says:

    While it’s certainly true that weird things happen, we can do better than throw up our hands and go with the flow.

    It’s only prudent for investors to look at what has happened so far, ask about causes, think about long-term outcomes, and pay attention to trends.