Categorized | New gTLDs

What Would It Take to Call Dot Web Successful?

Posted on 12 April 2017 by Andrei

Two days ago, I’ve explained why in my opinion, Dot Net is actually better than Dot Web in terms of “meaningfulness” of the term on the right of the dot. Both are superior to Dot Com in that respect but, well… that doesn’t matter :)

I believe it’s clear to everyone reading this post that nobody’s going to ever come close to Dot Com.

Let’s not even discuss that.

Instead, let’s try to figure out just what it would take to call Dot Web successful.

In my opinion, it will do better than most or perhaps all new gTLDs.

However, I expect an underwhelming performance overall.

I mean look, even in today’s environment in which there isn’t all that much demand for new gTLDs, I do believe a string like Dot Web will generate lots of interest. But some domainers are expecting a blockbuster performance from Dot Web and I for one think they’re too optimistic.

If we define “success” as generating profits each year then sure, it’ll obviously make enough to cover ICANN’s $25k fee and the other expenses :)

However, do keep in mind that Dot Web isn’t your average new gTLD… Verisign paid $135,000,000 for it. As such, if you define success as “generating a solid return based on what has been paid for it” which I think is a definition closer to reality, doing well is going to be harder.

If you define success as “how close to Dot Net will it get?” (with Dot Net having close to 15,000,000 names) then I for one think it will be almost impossible to get there unless they sell these names for pennies.

Dot Net has never been the star of the show but let’s face it, 15 million domains is an impressive number and unless Dot Web domains end up practically being given away, I just don’t see it happening.

I for one think Verisign should be very happy if they end up generating a good return on their investment. The 2nd definition, in other words.

Let’s assume that for each Dot Web domain, Verisign will net $7. At 4,000,000 domains after the first year, we’d be at $28,000,000 yearly, a number with which Verisign should be fairly happy. This is just a guesstimate on my part but I for one think this scenario would be a positive one for Verisign and at the same time, it would be reasonably realistic.

Anything more than let’s say 1/3 of Dot Net’s registrations is too optimistic IMO.

Dot Net is superior in terms of meaningfulness. It has been around for a looooong time and as such, people are aware it exists (awareness).

Frankly, I think 4,000,000 – 5,000,000 registrations are on the positive side if they end up pricing them similar to Dot Nets but again, we’ll see.

What about you guys? What do you think it would take to call Dot Web successful?

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8 Comments For This Post

  1. Suresh Raghavan Says:

    Honestly, I could care less for another made up TLD that is an also ran. Yeah, what does it stand for, a poor man’s .com , we have .net for that. No business in their sane mind should go for this. If they can’t get the .com, get the cctlds in their operating countries which is were the real action is and will be for the forseable future.

    Try getting people to type in .web at the end of the keywords, good luck. It takes a lot more than verisign to make it happen. The big negative is WHY does market need this?

    If Versign is actually releasing .web, then it will be lucky to be even close to 2 million domains. They wouldn’t give it away and undercut .net and .com. This whole thing is just a wasteful distraction IMHO

  2. Mark Thorpe Says:

    .Web will join the ranks of .co and .net as runners-up to .com.
    But, you will see 10+ million .web registrations by the time the dust settles.
    Domain speculators, startups, small biz and China will buy .web domains.
    By the time .web reaches general availability, most one-word, number and letter domains
    will already be boughten or held back by Verisign as premium domains.
    There will only be scraps leftover to hand register.IMO

  3. Anunt Says:

    .net is much better than .web

    i think .web sucks!!!

    if they spend a lot of money on promotion, they will get a lot of registrations…
    but people will not renew…so overall it’s a failure!!!

    just like if they sell it for pennies, they will get a lot of registrations…
    but people will not renew…so it’s a failure!!!

    People renew their .net registrations…so it’s much better than .web

    you have to get people to renew to call it successful…

    any company with huge marketing budget can get registrations…but when the time comes to renew is what matters…

    .web is nothing but hype!!!

  4. M. Menius Says:

    The truest sign of “success” is actual use by companies – regardless of the extension.

  5. Leonard Britt Says:

    If an investor holds 25 domains each in 20 different extensions for a total of 500 domains but sells NONE, does it matter how many registrations there are for each TLD? Does it matter what the highest reported sales are for each TLD? Even if none of the domains has a premium renewal, the investor is still losing $5k annually in renewals (@ $10/domain).

    There is only so much speculative money which can be invested in new extensions when most new TLD domain investors are running negative cash flow. Many new TLD domains are facing their second or third renewal cycle -where drops start to accelerate. Why do we need another extension when we already have hundreds we don’t need?

  6. Snoopy Says:

    Has no chance of success other than as a money maker Verisign, I think they’ll do well with it. For everyone else, domain investors, defensive registratants, endusers, they would be better off had it never existed.

  7. Suresh Raghavan Says:

    Just want to add that pure numbers doesn’t tell the real story whether a tld is succesful. Its all about how its being used. You could have 2 million domains sitting parked and does nothing for the future of the tld. Whereas, 1 million tlds where majority are being used heavily by big and small entities for legitimate websites, thats the real success for the long term.

  8. Morris Says:

    GTLD = Good To Lose Dollars — yes, even with .WEB

 
 
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