We had an interesting debate yesterday and one of my conclusions was this: time will tell what will happen when it comes to new gTLDs, I don’t believe in predictions.
I think this issue deserves its own post because a lot of people are 100% convinced that they know exactly what will happen. That, in my opinion, is a huge mistake.
I don’t have a crystal ball.
In fact, I honestly doubt there’s even one domainer who has a crystal ball, at least one that’s reasonably accurate
Sure, everyone is allowed to have an opinion but you have to understand one thing: predictions are just that, more or less educated opinions. Nothing more, nothing less.
Maybe you got it right in the past and automatically think you’re good at making predictions. Again, that’s a huge mistake which might just come back to haunt you. It happens a lot and not just when it comes to domaining: people get it right when it comes to let’s say a certain stock, end up thinking they’re invincible, become reckless and ultimately end up losing their shirt.
Ask two people if it will rain tomorrow.
One of them says it will, the other one says it won’t.
Obviously, one of them will ultimately be right. Does this mean the person in question is a genius and that you should blindly trust all of his future predictions? I don’t think so.
This is a mistake I notice frequently, especially among beginners: they’re on a constant lookout for predictions. It’s as if they think all one has to do is find some good predictions, blindly trust them and bam, problem solved.
The more experienced you become as an investor, the less attention you’ll end up paying to predictions and the more you’ll be interested in finding facts that can help you determine the risk/reward ratio associated with a certain financial decision.
That would be my recommendation: stop believing in predictions.
Start valuing facts, start following the money and you’ll be on the right track.
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