Most domainers perceive *all* new gTLD operators as well-funded entities ran by professionals. Some are, that’s true. Some however are simply small operations run by beginners on a shoestring budget. Nothing wrong with that and the people behind them deserve credit for their courage but before making a purchase, you as a domainer should know exactly what you’re getting into.
You see, we can pretty much create two categories:
1) Well-funded new gTLD operators, companies with a decent budget which can afford to be aggressive
2) Companies which barely managed to gather enough capital to cover the fees
The difference between the two is huge and it’s your responsibility as a domainer to figure out which companies deserve your business and which ones just aren’t ready for prime time.
A registry ran on a shoestrong budget won’t be able to gain traction in a meaningful way, this much is almost 100% certain. In their case, I’d say it will be a desperate struggle to break even because while I admire them for their courage, the truth is that they came to an important race on a skateboard instead of behind the steering wheel of a powerful car.
Just like there are beginners among domain investors, there are beginners among new gTLD operators.
Don’t make the mistake of assuming that new gTLDs are different in that respect, they aren’t.
Just like there are beginners among domainers who think they can get rich quick off a hand reg, there are new gTLD operators who think they can get rich off an operation ran on a shoestring budget. The equivalent of a hand reg, if you will. Ok, maybe that’s a bit extreme but I’m sure you get the point.
Now sure, a beginner might actually get rich off a hand reg, who knows. But the likelihood of that happening is very low and the same thing goes for his new gTLD counterpart.
With so many alternatives coming to the market, there just isn’t room for beginners unfortunately.
Might at least one such company do very well?
Sure, stranger things have happened.
But the likelihood of things unfolding this way is very low.