I asked you guys how many end user offers you’ve received for your new gTLDs thus far yesterday and Frank Schilling posted an interesting comment:
“This is a lot like that time in the early to mid 1990’s when many good names were gone but the com zone file was quite small. You would approach sellers and ask for a price. They would quote you a very high number, and you’d scurry to the available-pool instead to register something at cost. It will take a few years to sort all this out and for good, available names to be stripped away. It happens every day. Then suddenly the good premiums in new-g’s will start to sell more regularly. It’s hard for a vibrant secondary market to exist when so many good names remain unregistered in the available pool. That said we’re still seeing offers on premiums each day and with each passing day less good stuff remains unregistered.”
On the one hand, I have to agree that this makes sense: a lot of new gTLDs (not the best of the best by any means but good nonetheless) are still available at the registration fee and therefore, a lot of end users can simply hand register a decent one.
But once/if the good/decent ones will be taken, will we deal with a new gTLD scarcity phenomenon?
This is where I no longer agree with Frank, for one simple reason: all of the new gTLDs that have been launched and will be launched in the near or relatively near future are part of the first round of new gTLD launches.
In my opinion, this is only the beginning.
In fact, I expect the process of launching a new gTLD to gradually become easier as well as considerably cheaper.
Let’s say we’ll have 500-1000 new gTLDs after the first round is over (I’m excluding the dot brands).
If no other new gTLDs would be launched aside from these then yes, I could envision a scarcity scenario.
However, that is unlikely to happen.
Instead, there will probably be more rounds of new gTLD launches and should the costs end up becoming lower, the next rounds may very well end up consisting of more extensions than the first one.
Under such circumstances, I don’t think we’ll ever be dealing with scarcity in the true sense of the word when it comes to new gTLDs.
Does this mean there isn’t money to be made?
Of course not, it simply means you should be very picky.
The game has changed and there is less and less room for profits if your business model revolves around medium or mediocre domains. This goes for dot com business models, legacy TLD business models as well as new gTLD business models.
In fact, the term “picky” is too soft.
In 2014 and beyond, I’d recommend becoming brutally rational because with so many options out there, you have to up your game if you are serious about not only surviving but thriving.