Do I think legacy TLDs (Dot Info, Dot Biz and so on) will be affected by new gTLDs in a negative manner? Yes, I do.
Do I think legacy TLDs will be affected by new gTLDs in a positive manner? Yes, I do.
Now that everyone’s confused, it’s time to explain why my answer to both questions was “yes” and try to put things in perspective.
There are two main dimensions we should be aware of: reseller market (domainer to domainer) sales on the one hand and end user sales on the other.
Let’s start with the effect of new gTLDs on legacy TLD reseller market prices. I’m reasonably confident the effect will be negative and that’s putting it mildly. There’s only so much money on the “domainer to domainer” market and quite frankly, if you have liquidity-related complaints when it comes to new or legacy TLDs at this point, I’m pretty sure you’ll be disappointed or even downright shocked a few years from now.
When it comes to end user sales though, the situation is completely different and the huge number of new gTLDs might actually be an advantage. If (and, granted, that’s a big if) awareness is gradually generated, a *lot* of money will be flowing in the direction of new as well as legacy TLDs. A lot of the legacy TLDs are actually not bad at all compared to most new gTLDs (dot info is short and catchy, dot biz is short and a bit tacky but still highly memorable and so on), so they may very well be on the receiving end if people/companies gradually start embracing dot com/net/org alternatives.
All in all, that’s the way I see things: from a reseller market perspective, I doubt legacy TLDs and most new gTLDs will have a bright future but from an end user perspective, we might just be pleasantly surprised.