At the end of the day, I think the situation is relatively straightforward. There are 4 possible new gTLD scenarios or actually just three because one of them has two ramifications:
The Win-Win Scenario
In other words, dot com enthusiasts as well as new gTLD enthusiasts will be right. Dot coms will continue to go up in value but at the same time, there will be ample investment opportunities in the new gTLD space. The Internet will grow in an impressive manner, taking the domaining industry with it to new heights.
The Lose-Lose Scenario
In other words, nobody was right. The new gTLDs will prove disruptive but in a way that’s negative for all domainers. Dot coms will go down in value due to the fact that there are so many new choices and when it comes to new gTLDs, there will be too much dilution for worthwhile investment opportunities to exist.
The Win-Lose Scenario – Version 1
Dot com enthusiasts will be proven right. There will be few investment opportunities in the new gTLD space because people will flock to the “safe haven” option which is represented by dot com domains.
The Win-Lose Scenario – Version 2
New gTLD enthusiasts will be proven right. Dot coms will either stagnate or go down in value, whereas new gTLDs will represent an investment option with a considerably better risk vs. reward ratio for domainers.
That’s pretty much it.
Of course, each scenario can have lots and lots of ramifications but for the most part, I’d say these cover pretty much everything.
Which one did you choose?